Der Minister, die Kennedys und wir

So easy könnte ich mir einen unserer Minister nicht vorstellen. Aber wir sind eben in Dublin und da ist vieles anders. Der irische Transportminister Leo Varadkar sitzt einfach mitten drin in unserer Gruppe. Kein Aufsehen, nur eine kurze Rede mitten im Acht-Gänge-Menü des L’Ecrivain (Krabbe mit Gurkenschaum, Hähnchen-Terrine mit Kastanien-Biskuit-Parfait, Jakobsmuscheln auf Kürbis-Gremolata, Fizz Shot, Lachs auf Bouillabaisse mit geräuchterter Romate und Raviolo, Mont Blanc aus weißer schokolade und Baileys Panncotta, Shokoladenkuchen mit Orangenmarmelade und Orangeneis, Kaffee und Petit Fours). Von harten Zeiten spricht Leo Varadkar, die hoffentlich 2013 überwunden sind und vom Wiedererstarken Irlands, das sich im Gathering Ireland Jahr viel vom Tourismus erhofft. Leo Varadkar hat selbst indische Wurzeln und steht für ein weltoffenes Dublin.
Zurück im Shelbourne Hotel begrüßen uns die Kennedys. Hier flimmern all die Promis über den Bildschirm, die hier übernachtet haben. Eine ganze Menge, nicht nur die Kennedys, auch Liz Taylor und Richard Burton, Grace Kelly und Rainier von Monaco und jetzt also wir… In bester Gesellschaft. Das Hotel atmet Tradition. 

Ein Kommentare
  • Deniz
    Februar 14, 2013

    Strand one, Ireland’s primary difceit is hovering around 20bn. This is quite separate from the banking crisis. The EU/IMF bailout insisted that Ireland place 10bn into the banks immediately and set aside a further 25b as contingency funding for further losses. Most economists, even some highly regarded FG TD’s such as Peter Mathews believe that every cent of the 10bn plus 25bn will be required and that eventually bank losses will top the 100bn mark. Strand two, it follows from this, that Ireland will end up putting a minimum of 50bn into it’s banks from a bailout fund of 67.5bn (balance of 17.5bn composed of Ireland’s own NPRF). This begs the question where is the money going to come from to fund the annual exchequer difceit of 20bn which has proved impervious to fiscal reduction, for obvious reasons. From growth? Even the ICB have had to acknowledged the real possibility of negative growth for 2011 and a return to moderate growth in 2012 but that is aspirational, wishful thinking. Most private citizens expect deflation to continue if not accelerate, unemployment to rise, demand for products and services to decline further. Exchequer income will remain stuck at or around 30bn. I offer three main reasons why Ireland will need bailout no. II. Firstly, the Croke Park agreement prevents proper targeting of waste and which must be bank rolled by the private sector thereby causing more drain on that sector. Secondly, the interest rate increases planned by the ECB to dampen inflation in Germany and France and supported by the way, by our governor of the CBI Patrick Honohan. These hikes will hit 60% of Irish mortgages and cause a further wave of mortgage arrears and defaults impacting the balance sheet of insolvent Irish banks still further . Thirdly, as the government cut programs and implement a raft of charges such as water charges, property taxes etc aggregate demand will contract further. Yes, it is the dreaded deflationary cycle of higher interest rates, lower revenues, higher unemployment, higher debt servicing costs and more money being sucked from current spending to fund pensions of government workers past and present. All the time the government is breaking the fundamental rule of not borrowing for current consumption and current expenditures such as salaries, pensions, even social welfare payments.For all of the above reasons, it does not take a genius to see that Ireland will requires another Bailout II. Mr. Varadkar, has stated the blindingly obvious and has been slapped down for speaking out of turn but nothing will alter the fact that Ireland has not addressed its core incompetencies. At all stages of this crisis Ireland has been reactive with rushed, panicky ill thought out responses. Many of these responses, blanket guarantees, nama the bad bank idea, not to forget to mention the erosion of the right to freedom of information and private property as evidenced by the government’s recent sequestering of private pension funds. This has rightly frighten potential investors and those fortunate enough to still have some wealth. Today, your pension, tomorrow your bank savings and maybe your job?. What next? If taoiseach Enda Kenny was fully aware of what is going on he would know that Ireland’s initial bailout should have been in the region of 125bn or 130bn minimum. It was not, we are locked out of markets there is no real strategy to unwind the 140bn owed to the ECB (183bn including ICB). If I was our taoiseach, and I am glad I am not, I would be very worried about Irelands insolvency and the continuation of the group think Mr. Nyberg mentioned.

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